I have been waiting on this mornings Soundings before posting. I have posted the Brisbane, Charleville, Moree and I had to use the GFS based Sounding for Dalby with the correct temperature etc.
I prefer the soundings as it takes layers of pages and puts that into one diagram which is a slice of the atmosphere from the ground to whatever height the balloon may reach.
💥 Charleville
Profile: Deeply mixed, very dry through the mid-levels, with surface temps up around 36 °C and dewpoints near 11 °C.
Lifted Index: -0.7 °C — borderline unstable but not deeply convective yet.
Interpretation: Early in the day, the far west is still capped and relatively dry — this acts as the heating engine feeding eastward moisture. As the trough deepens eastward, this area could support high-based storms that push out gusty winds but not the main severe focus.
💥 Moree
Profile: Noticeably more moisture — dewpoints up near 16 °C, CAPE values implied to be high, and an LI of -8.7, which is significant.
PW: 32 mm — plenty of moisture.
Interpretation: This sounding suggests a highly unstable atmosphere, primed for strong updrafts and deep convection if the cap breaks. Storms here could rapidly intensify with large hail and strong downdrafts due to that dry slot aloft.
💥 Brisbane
PW: 35 mm, TT 52, LI –8.3 °C.
Interpretation: This is a loaded gun profile — rich low-level moisture, steep lapse rates, and strong instability. A weak cap may initially delay storm initiation, but once triggered, expect rapid vertical growth. The environment supports supercell potential if shear aligns correctly.
💥 Dalby (GFS forecast sounding)
CAPE: ~2,100 J/kg, LI –8.9 °C, SWEAT 568, 0–6 km shear moderate.
Interpretation: This is the heart of the action zone. Strong surface heating (temps 30 °C+) with dewpoints near 17 °C creates strong buoyancy. The hodograph shows enough curvature for organised cells, possibly splitting storms or supercells depending on local forcing.
Putting that all together
Instability (CAPE/TT): Very high CAPE and TT values (~50–60 in the soundings ). That supplies the energy needed for strong updrafts — a necessary ingredient for tornado-capable storms. ( Not stating that this will occur but it is a potential dependant on many factors)
Low-level moisture & LCLs: In many profiles (Brisbane/Dalby/Moree) the LCLs are relatively low and PW is high → good for low cloud bases and efficient near-surface inflow.
Shear & helicity: Deep-layer shear is moderate and supportive of organised multicells and marginal supercells. Low-level helicity (0–1 km SRH) in their plots looked modest — not extreme — but pockets of enhanced low-level veering near boundaries could locally boost SRH.
Capping: A cap still exists in places. That’s key: a strong cap suppresses storms; a moderate/weak cap allows isolated, discrete convection. Discrete supercells are the ones most likely to produce tornadoes.
Boundaries & triggers: Strong updrafts and winds in this region are most likely near sharp boundaries (sea-breeze, outflow, dryline, trough).
Net technical verdict: the thermodynamic ingredients are there; dynamic (low-level shear/trigger) ingredients are marginal to locally favourable. That makes tornadoes conditional, localised and difficult to predict until storms actually form.
To Put It Simply
In short, the atmosphere inland is primed and ready — storms that form there this afternoon could quickly become severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly brief rotation in stronger cells.
Coastal areas, including Brisbane, are more stable early but may still see activity later as storms push east.
While today’s setup is certainly one to watch, it’s important not to panic.
This is the kind of day where conditions can produce dangerous storms, but not every storm will be extreme. Staying alert to warnings and radar through the afternoon and evening is the best approach.
Edited by user Saturday, 1 November 2025 11:39:43 AM(UTC)
| Reason: Spelling and grammar
