Weather Forum
»
Australia Weather
»
SEQ and NE NSW
»
SE QLD and NE NSW - Day to Day Weather
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 2/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 105 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 145 times Was thanked: 561 time(s) in 103 post(s)
|
Some modest instability possibly developing early to mid next week as winds turn more northerly (after the couple of short-lived S to SE changes towards the end of this week/early weekend which may temporarily increase wind gusts near the coast) but one of the problems is less than ideal moisture.... so the latter factor would have to upgrade a lot in future runs for anything more than localised convection, if any. (note in the EC ensemble graph that the lighter blue shaded area only represents the top 10% most aggressive outliers of all the members). While the temporary increases in winds behind the changes towards the end of this week don't look as strong as Monday's for most areas and therefore fire dangers unlikely to be as bad as recently, you'd hope they'd have made a fair bit of progress in taming the current fires by then.
|
7 users thanked Ken for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: Ken
Some modest instability possibly developing early to mid next week as winds turn more northerly (after the couple of short-lived S to SE changes towards the end of this week/early weekend which may temporarily increase wind gusts near the coast) but one of the problems is less than ideal moisture.... so the latter factor would have to upgrade a lot in future runs for anything more than localised convection, if any. (note in the EC ensemble graph that the lighter blue shaded area only represents the top 10% most aggressive outliers of all the members).
While the temporary increases in winds behind the changes towards the end of this week don't look as strong as Monday's for most areas and therefore fire dangers unlikely to be as bad as recently, you'd hope they'd have made a fair bit of progress in taming the current fires by then.
Hi Ken, That is excellent. Thank you for sharing and a lovely way to show the data. Nice to see a bit more humidity around and some warmer temps this weekend too! Edited by user Wednesday, 11 September 2019 3:04:09 PM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
4 users thanked CantSpellNarangba for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 185 Location: Ocean View Thanks: 359 times Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)
|
Also great to see a drop in wind speed, some cloud cover today and dew points in the low teens too. (Not really nice clouds for our Cloud Appreciation forum though!)
|
5 users thanked Pabloako for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 10/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 13 Location: Melbourne (Where it rains)
Thanks: 34 times Was thanked: 17 time(s) in 9 post(s)
|
According to Google forecasts (Weather.com), stull sunny skies ahead
|
1 user thanked SunSpots for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 185 Location: Ocean View Thanks: 359 times Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)
|
Being backed up by Ken's post above, GFS has a small glimmer of hope of a drop of rain mid next week.
|
2 users thanked Pabloako for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 2/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 105 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 145 times Was thanked: 561 time(s) in 103 post(s)
|
Unfortunately GFS has been one of the outliers among the models, being more aggressive than many of the others with the moisture so I’m not too excited about it atm. But we’ll have to wait a few more days to see what future runs bring. Looks better the further south you go along the NSW coast though.
|
3 users thanked Ken for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 25/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 1,839 Location: Ferny Grove Thanks: 985 times Was thanked: 856 time(s) in 419 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: crikey Interesting statistics 'falling drop' on your rainfall anomaly, confirming the BOM drought report.Thanks for that
You're welcome crikey. One of my projects have been tracking lots of different rainfall statistics which I plan to publicly make available in the future. A similar maximum temperature today compared to yesterday but with partly cloudy skies the temperature took longer to rise. The temperature rose and fell a few times before the maximum just before 3pm. Dew point rose gradually reaching near average since the late afternoon peaking at a high of 9 C. Relative humidity have returned to near average though was variable with the cloud cover. Light winds turned SSE to ESE during the day and have eased to calm in the evening. |
|
1 user thanked Falling_Droplet for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 185 Location: Ocean View Thanks: 359 times Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: Ken Unfortunately GFS has been one of the outliers among the models, being more aggressive than many of the others with the moisture so I’m not too excited about it atm. But we’ll have to wait a few more days to see what future runs bring. Looks better the further south you go along the NSW coast though. Fingers crossed. A drop of rain to settle the dust would be very welcome!
|
2 users thanked Pabloako for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 182 Location: Wynnum North Thanks: 656 times Was thanked: 381 time(s) in 167 post(s)
|
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
DATE....12 SEP 2019...TIME...0800
CURRENT TEMPERATURE...15.2C CURRENT HUMIDITY........70% CURRENT DEW POINT.......10C CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....W 10Kph CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1028.9Hpa CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM CURRENT CLOUD..........1/8 Cu CURRENT WEATHER......No significant weather. RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY..Trace
SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP. .......22.4C THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.......8.3C PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-3.25C THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN......7.4C AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......10C AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1028.2Hpa MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS..S 36Kph at 1705 PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER..Smoke thinned. Slight shower late Wednesday morning. No rain recorded. |
Wyn Nth 2020-Jan165, |
3 users thanked retired weather man for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 25/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 1,839 Location: Ferny Grove Thanks: 985 times Was thanked: 856 time(s) in 419 post(s)
|
Ferny Grove Weather Date: 12 Sep 2019 Time: 7:35 AM
Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 6.9 C Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.4 C Min Ground Temp: 4.9 C Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
Temperature: 12.6 C Relative Humidity: 77 % Dew Point: 8.6 C MSL Pressure: 1028.2 hPa Wind Speed: Calm Wind Direction: Calm
Present Weather: Clouds generally forming or developing during the preceding hour Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility Cloud Cover: 1/8 Ground State: Ground moist
Notes of yesterday weather - 11/9/19: Fine. Sunny early with some sc clouds clouds before becoming partly cloudy with cu clouds developing from later in the morning and easing in afternoon. Moderately low dew point early before rising in the early morning becoming stable from the late morning while fluctuating at times and rose slowly to near average in the late afternoon. In the evening the dew point fell slowly moderately low. Daytime relative humidity fluctuated but was near average. Light and variable winds early becoming S to SW in the early morning S to SE from mid morning and ESE to SSE from late morning. In the evening winds became variable before easing to calm later in the evening.
Today: This morning minimum temperature was the lowest for September in 2 years (lowest since 5.1 C on 16 September 2017). Light SW winds in the last half hour after calm winds overnight with the temperature falling very steadily given the calm winds. Dew point have recovered to near average in the last hour after being moderately low overnight and relative humidity have been near average.
|
|
3 users thanked Falling_Droplet for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 7/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 67 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 113 times Was thanked: 207 time(s) in 61 post(s)
|
Good morning Queensland! Still some smoke from the fires around on the latest RGB image from this morning. I love the cloud patters off of the coast this morning. Very pretty.
|
4 users thanked SatMan for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)
|
Nice capture satman'. I took a pic' of the clouds over sth tweed this morning about 9.30am. They have all dissolved now over us.
ACC g has absolutely no precipitation in SE QLD for the next 5 days with weakly structured high pressure. More of the same l assume .Fine with possible smoze haze. I suppose the nights and mornings will remain cool as well. I noticed RWM daily obs still showing 3deg below the mean.
Picture of cumuloform? stratocumulus ? l think,as taken facing west at tweed south near the border. Currently clear , no smoke
Edited by user Thursday, 12 September 2019 1:34:13 PM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
3 users thanked crikey for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)
|
It was very quiet on all weather forums today and that reflects the weather at the moment... Rather boring!
Main concern for me is increasing temperatures and Very High fire dangers over the next couple of days. Hopefully humidity increases after the weekend.
|
2 users thanked CantSpellNarangba for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)
|
I found a wonderful image on BOM website (everyone has already probably found it) for sea temperatures for SEQ, which got me thinking. Wouldn't shallower costal waters be warmer than the deeper sea off of the continental shelf. Is it colder night time temperatures of the land reducing the temperature of water near the land, or is it the current off shore are bringing warmer waters down and costal water appear to be coming up from the South. Coastal temps are around 20 or 21 degrees, but further offshore it is 22. Edited by user Thursday, 12 September 2019 6:50:31 PM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
4 users thanked CantSpellNarangba for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 2/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 105 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 145 times Was thanked: 561 time(s) in 103 post(s)
|
Sea surface temps (even in fairly shallow waters which are open to the open ocean) are mainly affected by the general ocean currents which transport warmer or cooler water into an area, upwelling or mixing of waters of different temps from below, and atmospheric influences (clouds/precip which affect the amount of solar energy hitting the surface, etc). Because water has a high heat capacity, large bodies of water including coastal waters have very little diurnal variation so there's little temp change between day and night. I hope that answers your question :) There does appear to be a faint glimmer of hope of a very modest increasing trend with precip potential as we head later into the month (and a period of a more established northeasterly wind flow) as can be seen in the 2nd EC ensemble graphic above where even the driest 10% of its members have of a little bit of precip potential starting within the 7-14 day timeframe from now (the more aggressive scenarios have it starting earlier).... and the latest ACCESS-S output showing a temporary period of close to even odds of drier/wetter than normal conditions sometime between the 23rd and 29th in southern QLD Sep: http://www.bom.gov.au/cl...rainfall/median/weekly/1(although "even odds" being the operative words here - it doesn't necessarily mean there'll be wet conditions). There's nothing yet that currently indicates any good confidence of big rain events within the next few weeks but even just a little bit of rainfall from some shower or thunderstorm activity would be nice... even if it means only some locations get wet while others don't. Edited by user Thursday, 12 September 2019 7:07:28 PM(UTC)
| Reason: wrong graphic
|
6 users thanked Ken for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)
|
That excellent. Thank you for the excellent explanation on sea temps. That reminds me of an old physics lesson when I was at school when we dropped blue coloured cold water into red hot water and watched the two mix.
Also, great graphs. The Forecast comparison for accumulated precipitation really does show the Americans (their model anyway!) are on a different path to the other models. I think you called it more aggressive in an earlier post.
I am crossing everything for the Ensemble to happen, or at least provide something exciting to watch.
|
4 users thanked CantSpellNarangba for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 26/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 36 Location: Just south of Cairns Thanks: 68 times Was thanked: 52 time(s) in 27 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: CantSpellNarangba That excellent. Thank you for the excellent explanation on sea temps. That reminds me of an old physics lesson when I was at school when we dropped blue coloured cold water into red hot water and watched the two mix.
Also, great graphs. The Forecast comparison for accumulated precipitation really does show the Americans (their model anyway!) are on a different path to the other models. I think you called it more aggressive in an earlier post.
I am crossing everything for the Ensemble to happen, or at least provide something exciting to watch. Ha... Funny.. Americans being aggressive and doing their own thing. Who would have thought.
|
2 users thanked NotCrocDundee for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 2/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 105 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 145 times Was thanked: 561 time(s) in 103 post(s)
|
The US model has actually often been one of the more conservative models in the past when it comes to rainfall amounts. Edited by user Thursday, 12 September 2019 10:00:09 PM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
2 users thanked Ken for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 182 Location: Wynnum North Thanks: 656 times Was thanked: 381 time(s) in 167 post(s)
|
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
DATE....13 SEP 2019...TIME...0740
CURRENT TEMPERATURE...13.6C CURRENT HUMIDITY........81% CURRENT DEW POINT.......11C CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..WSW 4Kph CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1021.9Hpa CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM CURRENT CLOUD..........Nil CURRENT WEATHER......No significant weather. RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY..Trace
SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP. .......22.1C THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.......8.1C PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-3.50C THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN......7.7C AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......10C AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1025.5Hpa MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS..E 29Kph at 1316 PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER..No significant weather. |
Wyn Nth 2020-Jan165, |
2 users thanked retired weather man for this useful post.
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 25/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 1,839 Location: Ferny Grove Thanks: 985 times Was thanked: 856 time(s) in 419 post(s)
|
Ferny Grove Weather Date: 13 Sep 2019 Time: 7:50 AM
Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7.7 C Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 25.1 C Min Ground Temp: 5.6 C Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
Temperature: 14.4 C Relative Humidity: 65 % Dew Point: 7.9 C MSL Pressure: 1021.3 hPa Wind Speed: Calm Wind Direction: Calm
Present Weather: No cloud development observed Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility Cloud Cover: 0/8 Ground State: Ground moist
Notes of yesterday weather - 12/9/19: Fine and partly cloudy. Cu clouds developing during the morning and easing later in the afternoon. A cold morning and fluctuating temperature from mid morning to mid afternoon. Dew point fell in the early hours moderately low before rising in the early morning to near average before quickly falling back to moderately low where it was generally stable through to the late afternoon. In the late afternoon the dew point rose to near average and then slowly fell later in the evening and became moderately low. Moderately low daytime relative humidity. Light S to WSW winds in the early morning before SSE to ENE winds from the mid morning before light and variable winds from the late morning. E to SE winds in the mid afternoon, ENE to NE in late afternoon and N to NW in the evening.
Today: The dew point have been falling and have started to rise but is moderately low. Winds have mostly been calm with some occasional light wind of variable direction.
|
|
2 users thanked Falling_Droplet for this useful post.
|
|
|
Guest (4),
UnknownMozillaSpiders
|
Weather Forum
»
Australia Weather
»
SEQ and NE NSW
»
SE QLD and NE NSW - Day to Day Weather
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
Important Information:
The Weather Forum uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
More Details
Close