A very hot and humid night last night.Temperatures for Brisbane never fell below 27°C all night and with the high dew points the feel like temperature hovered around the 33-34°C mark throughout the night. Unfortunately Saturday night is much of a repeat.

There is a slim chance of a storm but more to the South of Brisbane and over the border.
We could see an early morning rumble from around 01:00 am -04:00 am Sunday and then another storm towards the evening possibly severe. A lot of energy in the atmosphere but we just have to see how it will shape up throughout Sunday.

Below is the temperature observation for Brisbane. The same was felt through out much of the South East Coastal areas.



Storm potentials for Saturday/ Sunday

Edited by user Saturday, 27 January 2024 6:39:13 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

An agonising and oppressive night. The feel like temperature sat around 35.2 ° C most of the night until the wind started to change direction and there was a slight reprieve, if you could call it that. The temperature dropped a little bit to 31.2° at approximately 3:30 am then down to 290°C around 4:30 am. This is the first time in 30 years we have not had air conditioning. So we felt the full blast of mother natures heatwave.



Storms have dropped some big totals of rain with some areas receiving over 100mm . Below is the Brisbane metropolitan rainfall charts.



More storms are forecast for today and tomorrow with some heavy rain for Tuesday. The trough is very slow moving, even last night the rain we received didn’t arrive until about 3:30 where as the modelling suggested about 1:00 am. ( that is for our direct area in the SEQLD corner.).
These storms and rain can be quite dangerous for the rainrate per hour totals so please be careful and listen or look for any warnings that may be given by BoM and then through your Councils Early Warning text.

Edited by user Sunday, 28 January 2024 9:20:31 AM(UTC)  | Reason: I lost data while posting and just reread and grammar mistakes. Very tired .

Another hot and humid night last night and this mornings. Although it was a little cooler the feel like temperatures sat around the 31° - 32° C for most of the night.



As for SEQLD and NE NSW the remnants of the tropical low to the North West with a slow moving ridge over the Southeast of QLD will continue to produce showers/ rain and possible storms. Also a low is expected to develop off the South East Coast and enhance the rainfall. The low is expected to move away from the Coast from Thursday onwards. Below is the ECMFW, GFS and the good old 4 day chart. That chart is about all we had in the 70’s and 80’s to work out our weather for a surf, dive or sail. Good old days though. Now we can get our hands on all sorts of models that tell us all sorts of things depending on the model and how it underperforms or over performs to catastrophic levels or it may even get it right.
But EC and GFS are at this point in line with a low developing and it moving away from the coast with it just enhancing the rainfall.
So with heavy falls from rain and possible storms that may hit over the next few days, please keep and eye and ear open for any warnings.

Some huge rainfall totals as at 3:30 am
Cedar Creek 239 mm
Samford 318mm
Drapers Crossing AL 274mm
Eatons Hill 181 mm
Lawnton 146mm
Warner 185 mm

A very dangerous storm for these areas was still current when writing this.



The radar at 3:20 am



And rainfall totals







The heat has been unbearable once again. Only running on about 8 hours since Friday night. Absolutely exhausted. Stay safe and listen for any warnings or flood information especially around those Northern Suburbs and the flow on from the creeks.

Ex Kirrily,(blue circle), is expected to hang around the Northwest for a few more days. We had a massive deep trough over Southern Queensland and with all that extreme heat there was an excessive amount of moisture. In fact the precipitable water in yesterday afternoons sounding broke a record with 73.5mm. BoM put up another balloon last night and it broke the record again with 74.2 mm. Just an absolutely saturated atmosphere. Ex Kirrily helped to fuel and move the trough Northeast and a low, in yellow, is now developing off the Coast. Exactly what the low will do is a bit of an unknown as the models have a few scenarios, so it is a wait and see if it does veer back towards the Coast or moves East.???

It was unfortunately a pretty wild afternoon/night for some areas. Some places copping over 300mm in 3 hours. It has caused a fair bit of flooding. Houses a suburb over from here, had a meter of water through them. Many other places over the Southeast have also flooded, houses and businesses. Road closures everywhere. Farms flattened once again in the Lockyear Valley so expect to see higher food prices again.

From what I saw with a couple of Bridges, there must have been a 6 feet wall of water hit at around 2:30am. Would have taken some force to damage the 2 bridges like it did. That is the thick guard rails and hand rails. On the TV those in Bray Park said they were awoken by water in the house, the last time it flooded they said it was slow, but this time they had no warning. It picked up an empty Ford Ute and it floated 250 meters down the street.

Dew points are not expected to be as high as they have been throughout the heatwave, so hopefully those horrid temperatures are gone for a little bit. I have a feeling we may see them again. Extreme weather events happening right around the world and we are not immune to them here unfortunately.

The night time temperatures have been way cooler and not as humid over the last 2 nights. Very nice and enjoying it.

The weather long range outlook is still a bit of a mixed bag with consensus of the models. They all have different outcomes with the Low of the South East Coast and Ex Kirrily. The accuracy for models this far out is pretty low. When it comes within the 24 hour period, they say the accuracy of the models is about 90% but unfortunately for me, I don’t really subscribe to that point of view. My reason is: how many times do we reach the forecast day and at 05:10 the forecast is out. Anywhere from 07:00- 11:00 BoM have updated the forecast. The weather is just so unpredictable and the slightest changes can have a big impact on the weather.

To give credit due, this is not all the time but mainly through a major weather event which is hard to pin point.

So from all the models the take away is, ex Kirrily is expected to move to the Gulf then turn sharply and head South. So the Southern Interior of Queensland will be impacted to some degree, the atmosphere to the North is loaded with moisture so there could be a fair bit of rain. ?? Just have to see as we draw closer. Once it moves into the South East , that is where it goes in all directions. So once again just have to wait and see.

The Low of the East Coast also has many outcomes, So a wait and see. But while waiting it is a good time to prepare just in case. There is 2 possible Lows that could impact the South East and NE NSW. But the accuracy is just a little over the place from Catastrophic to totally misses us.

The best model I could present is the old 4 day as below.



As for today, there is a slight chance for some Coastal showers. Below is the SkewT ( which shows a little moisture but the chance for a storm are about nil)
And also the Li Chart and as you can see all the action is around Bunderberg and to the North.





Chance of showers/rain

Edited by user Thursday, 1 February 2024 7:09:52 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Temperatures are starting to feel a little warmer than usual thanks to to a slight rise in due points.
The feel like or apparent overnight temperatures sat around 29-30°C so it was getting a little uncomfortable once again as can be seen by the Brisbane Observations below.




There is a high pressure ridge sitting over the Southern part of Queensland and it is keeping our weather a quite stable. Areas around the Gold Coast and just over the NE NSW borders may see a shower today but as for the rest of South East Queensland and Ne NSW it is going to be a warm day and no storm activity unless there is a massive atmospheric change. Below is the sounding and storms just won’t fire off with this type of setup.



Raincast.

Just running through the models and we are sort of stuck in this holding pattern of above 30°C days warm nights and a possible shower or two if you happen to be under one. There will be a strong ridge over Southwest Queensland from Wednesday that will just sit there for the next 5 days. There is not much rainfall predicted from these showers either.

As for the low in the Coral Sea. It may strengthen and move a little closer to the Coast. But nothing is a certainty once again. So it is a keep an eye on it and see what happens at this point.

Yesterday saw quite a few showers and heavier than predicted to the North of Brisbane around the Caboolture area. This morning we had a couple of early morning showers around 3:30- 4:30 am. It managed to drop the temperature a little which was nice.

Today should see more shower activity along with Southerly turning to Southeasterly winds during the day. Still a warm day but not as unpleasant as it has been. A nice change from those unpleasant extremely hot and humid days.

Below is the raincast with the possible showers and Windy highlighting the wind direction and strength. Southeasterly winds are much more pleasant than the Northeasterlies and Northwesterlies we have had to endure this summer. We should see showers persisting over the next few days.

Edited by user Thursday, 8 February 2024 6:15:14 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Still stuck in this holding pattern although today will be a little more pleasant and should stay below the 30° mark, only just but it is a nice change. Technically Summer is drawing down towards an end and March will see the start of Autumn although we usually don’t see a great difference in the weather. But it has been a hot, humid, wet and dangerous summer this one. Over the next couple of months we will still see temperatures in the 30°C mark.

Today should once again see some showers and the only action at this stage, as I posted yesterday, appears to be on Thursday where we could see a thunderstorm. We had a very heavy shower last night over our area around 9:20 pm. This morning was a little more brisk than usual which was nice as well.

Below is the raincast with possible showers.