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Offline Colmait  
#341 Posted : Saturday, 7 December 2024 10:19:13 AM(UTC)
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Water temperatures around Australia are very warm and therefore feeding an extreme amount of moisture into the atmosphere.

The results of this is hot and muggy ( oppressive) weather where the apparent temperatures will make it feel a lot hotter than the actual temperature.

This could also fuel some storms over the next few days, especially Sunday and Monday as the models are favouring towards . But they could also fire off today, so once again just keep an eye and ear open to forecast and warnings if storms build.

As for the long term weather pattern, Australia is mid way between a La Niña and a Neutral weather pattern. It is being monitored closely to which way it may tip. Below is the current water temperature anomalies. Along with this I have also posted the long term weather drivers up until April 2025.

IMG_4655.jpeg

IMG_4654.jpeg

IMG_4653.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 7/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#342 Posted : Sunday, 8 December 2024 8:52:18 AM(UTC)
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Not sure if GFS has taken some medication, but it’s latest run is showing a possibility of storms for nearly everyday this week. Sometimes the morning run is a little overcooked so I will wait to see what this evening run throws out.

But to be honest due to the heat and moisture the potential is there. So no to sound alarms and be over the top, just please keep a watch out for forecast and if storms develop for any warnings. There is the potential for a couple of nasty ones but they may die off with the next run. That is why I am not putting any charts up yet.

The possibility for a storm later this afternoon/ evening still looks strong along with Monday. A lot can change in 24 hours or less weather wise.

Stay safe and stay cool, it is a hot and muggy week ahead.
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#343 Posted : Sunday, 8 December 2024 5:54:45 PM(UTC)
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A couple of cells trying to fire off. Moisture was the big problem as can be seen on the sounding. But as evening approaches hopefully the NEasterly seabreeze can add some moisture and gives us a bit of a reprieve. Below is the Sounding, the radar sweep and the Storm warning for southern queensland.

IMG_4656.jpeg

IMG_4658.jpeg


IMG_4657.jpeg

Edited by user Sunday, 8 December 2024 5:55:38 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#344 Posted : Sunday, 8 December 2024 6:25:04 PM(UTC)
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STW for the cells approaching Springbrook and surrounding areas.

IMG_4659.jpeg

IMG_4661.jpeg

Strong winds are the main concern as can be seen on the doppler sweep.

IMG_4663.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#345 Posted : Sunday, 8 December 2024 8:05:43 PM(UTC)
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The Southerly change is sweeping through as can be seen on the doppler,( the yellow wind ).

IMG_4666.jpeg

The storms that are moving through with the change are pretty lightning active. Should be a nice breeze hit the Metro and Northern suburbs of Brisbane very shortly.

IMG_4664.jpeg

IMG_4665.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#346 Posted : Monday, 9 December 2024 6:08:01 AM(UTC)
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It was one of those extremely muggy hot nights just as the previous summer was like. Just using the Brisbane observations, the minimum temperature did not drop below 25°C all night. The apparent or feels like temperature sat at above 30°C most of the night just dipping before dawn to approximately 29°C. Our area of observations was pretty much the same as Brisbane CBD.

IMG_4667.jpeg


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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#347 Posted : Monday, 9 December 2024 5:41:28 PM(UTC)
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Storms firing off just to the West of us.
Storm warning and radar imagery.

IMG_4671.jpeg

IMG_4670.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#348 Posted : Monday, 9 December 2024 7:13:50 PM(UTC)
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Latest STW and radar imagery.


73 mm of rainfall recorded at Mt Mowbullan in the 1 hour to 6:45 pm

IMG_4672.jpeg

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Edited by user Monday, 9 December 2024 7:14:53 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#349 Posted : Monday, 9 December 2024 8:48:13 PM(UTC)
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Just so much moisture in the atmosphere. Latest STW with some of the rainfall totals.

IMG_4675.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#350 Posted : Tuesday, 10 December 2024 11:21:27 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Colmait Go to Quoted Post
It was one of those extremely muggy hot nights just as the previous summer was like. Just using the Brisbane observations, the minimum temperature did not drop below 25°C all night. The apparent or feels like temperature sat at above 30°C most of the night just dipping before dawn to approximately 29°C. Our area of observations was pretty much the same as Brisbane CBD.



It sure was an extremely muggy and hot night on Sunday Colmait and Sunday itself was very unpleasant temperature and humidity wise. We are lucky to have air conditioned bedrooms as I wouldn't be able to sleep otherwise with those oppressive night time temps and humidity.


Looks like we are in for some more rain today. This is the 256k Mt Stapylton Radar image at 11.10 am this morning.


Mt Stapylton 256k 10.12.24 11.10 am.JPG
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Colmait on 10/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#351 Posted : Tuesday, 10 December 2024 3:37:39 PM(UTC)
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Hi Aussie Girl, definitely has been terrible but todays rain has been very welcomed as you could feel the temperature drop with the change.

We have seen some sort of storm activity everyday since Saturday throughout different areas of this thread . This afternoon there is a small clearing storm coming through with some lightning and thunder currently over Toowoomba. Storms are still a possibility right through this week due to the instability and humid weather. Friday is still looking impressive but it is still a few days out. Tomorrow should start telling us what we could see, storm or rain. But it has been one of the better setups for a while. Niw I have said that the models will change. Confused BigGrin

Below is Lightning tracker and the 256K Mt Stapylton radar .

IMG_4680.jpeg

IMG_4679.jpeg

Edited by user Tuesday, 10 December 2024 3:43:28 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Aussie Girl on 14/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#352 Posted : Thursday, 12 December 2024 4:00:09 PM(UTC)
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I had been saying a few days that Friday was shaping up to be a big storm day but it was quite a few days out and it is too early to say for sure which way it would go, why even 2 days ago it was looking quite impressive. But in the last run it really took a turn and downgraded itself a fair bit. There is is still a chance for storms but at this stage, if they fire off, they fortunately do not appear as severe as what it was first showing, which is good news if it stays that way.

Saturday is looking a good possibility as well but once again we need to see what happens with the latest run.

This was the output from last Sunday and as is the case it was a a long way out to lock anything in.

IMG_4668.jpeg

IMG_4669.jpeg

This is the latest run from today, (Thursday) for Friday, and you can see it has really backed off a lot, even Wednesday run was looking a lot stronger. That is why you have to be careful in trying to say a storm is likely and it is going to massive etc.

IMG_4688.jpeg

IMG_4689.jpeg

But keep an eye and ear out as there is potential in the coming week due to the high humidity and heat for storms to maybe form in the different areas that this thread covers .
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Aussie Girl on 14/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#353 Posted : Saturday, 14 December 2024 8:35:14 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Colmait Go to Quoted Post
Hi Aussie Girl, definitely has been terrible but todays rain has been very welcomed as you could feel the temperature drop with the change. ....


Saturday is looking a good possibility as well but once again we need to see what happens with the latest run.




The rain did bring a nice cool change in temperature especially after last Sunday's terrible hot and humid weather.

It looks like you may be right about the storm potential for Saturday Colmait. This is the forecast for today:


Forecast 14.12.24.JPG


This is the 128km Mt Stapylton radar image from 8.30am:


128km Mt Stapylton 14.12.24 8.30 am.JPG
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Colmait on 14/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#354 Posted : Saturday, 14 December 2024 1:11:40 PM(UTC)
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Severe Storm Warning currently out.

IMG_4690.jpeg


IMG_4691.jpeg

IMG_4693.jpeg

IMG_4692.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 17/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#355 Posted : Monday, 16 December 2024 2:31:45 PM(UTC)
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Some severe weather around for the next few days. You can clearly see the low sitting of the Queensland Coast from the Satellite imagery. Please stay alert to any warnings issued. At this point the worst of the conditions is just sitting to the North of the Sunshine Coast.

Most areas within the Brisbane observations are currently experiencing wind gusts of 50+ KM/H with 72 KM/H recorded at Cape Moreton. We can expect heavy showers or Thunderstorms with heavy rainfalls over the next few days. It should clear by Thursday all going well.

IMG_4700.jpeg

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Aussie Girl on 17/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#356 Posted : Tuesday, 17 December 2024 7:08:16 AM(UTC)
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Heavy rain hit last night and ramped up in the early hours of this morning, Tuesday 17 Dec.

Storm warnings were issued as below.

IMG_4702.jpeg

IMG_4703.jpeg

We recorded a 111 mm as at 06:00 this morning
.
There are many road closures around the South East due to flash flooding.

Below is some of the hardest hit areas in the Brisbane Metropolitan area.

IMG_4704.jpeg

Showers and storms are still a high possibility while the remnants of the Low is still sitting on the Queensland Coast.
The low is definitely weakening by the Satellite imagery.

IMG_4705.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 17/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#357 Posted : Tuesday, 17 December 2024 11:52:09 AM(UTC)
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Thank you for posting all that information and the warnings Colmait.

This weather has had an almost cyclonic feel to it. I had to go out yesterday and used my large umbrella. The wind was so strong at times against the umbrella that I could almost not move forward. I wasn't game to hold the umbrella the other way as it would have blown inside out.

I walked outside earlier and going from the air conditioning to outside was like walking straight into a sauna.
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Colmait on 17/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#358 Posted : Wednesday, 18 December 2024 11:11:09 AM(UTC)
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Definitely feels like a sauna Aussie Girl. Ridiculous amount of humidity with the apparent temperatures making it feel like 6°C hotter than it is in many places. The current heavy showers with lightning is helping to drop the temperature slightly right now, 11:08 am.

Currently there are some embedded storms in the passing showers as can be seen on the lightning tracker. A few rumbles over our area.

IMG_4712.jpeg

IMG_4714.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 18/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#359 Posted : Wednesday, 18 December 2024 12:29:19 PM(UTC)
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A few bigger cells are now starting to develop. Current warning for ST around the Scenic Rim and surrounds.

IMG_4716.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 18/12/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#360 Posted : Wednesday, 18 December 2024 12:59:27 PM(UTC)
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Latest STW

IMG_4718.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 18/12/2024(UTC)
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