Latest STW. Very dangerous and heavy downfalls have been recorded and continue to fall. Stay safe.

I just had a look at the modelling forecast sounding with that of the Brisbane Sounding. Both of the Trace lines ( Temperature and Dew points) are indicating a saturated atmosphere with a lot of cape or fuel to cause storms to rapidity form and fire off.

We just had another small storm cell pass over, this time with quite a bit more thunder rolling through.

Edited by user Saturday, 11 January 2025 10:47:10 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

STW for heavy rain.

Hi Aussie Girl, I totally agree with you with the rare and unusual weather becoming the norm. It is like the weather is on steroids.

I think a lot of people are put off when they use the weather as a weapon to promote some gender they maybe trying to push for political or monetary gain. I personally remain neutral in the climate debate, but I do recognise that the weather has definitely changed.

I found it interesting in reading about the paradox of the warming temperatures is the extreme cold and massive snowstorms, then the complete opposite of record high temperatures, severe storms of all sorts, droughts fires and floods and everything else we experience or see on the news.

But for the current weather in the South East Queensland, BoM have issued flood watch 4. They are also expecting that there could be more flooding with the possible storms for the rest of Sunday and Monday. The modelling system are also hinting at the possibility of storms beyond Monday as well.

Edited by user Sunday, 12 January 2025 3:45:17 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Speailing prebloms 😁

Just having a look at the Toowoomba radar and there has been 2 slow moving cells/showers heading NNE. I haven’t been able to pick up the actual hourly rain rates properly yet on any of the radars around the district. ( Toowoomba’s radar does not show the rainfall data).

The cells/showers are sitting between 700-500mb and following the NNE wind shear. At present the latest updated model sounding once again has a very strong cap for storm to break if. That is why I have been calling them cells/showers. Even with a strong cap we should still see nice chunky showers around the district. Also at this stage the TT’s have a low value but this is using the forecast sounding.

Just waiting for the Brisbane sounding this morning to come through.

The Toowoomba radar.



Forecast sounding.

Edited by user Wednesday, 15 January 2025 10:09:16 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling

Hi Aussie Girl.

With the jet streams becoming more wavier, I have put a link to a youtube with an explanation of what it means without anyone getting political etc. It is from the British Meteorological Office.

Jet streams basically are meant to have a slow curve as they circulate the planet both in the Northern and Southern hemisphere. This is part of one of the earths mechanisms that regulates the planets heat and cold and drives our weather patterns. But for some time these jet stream waves/curves have become more like a violent set of tall waves at sea with the period or interval between each wave becoming very close together. This results in the weather becoming more intense and extreme.

I try and put weather into simple terms otherwise it can become a technical jargon essay to read. And as one Queensland meteorologist who became a lecturer at the St Lucia Uni basically said., weather should be explained or presented in ways that everyone can understand.

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The Day After Tomorrow is an excellent movie. There was a 2 disk set that I managed to get, one with the movie and the second with the technical explanations by scientist of what is happening and why.

As they said, they had to put all the action unfortunately into one City, New York. But interesting, nearly everything that has happened in the movie in New York, except for the exceptionally high tsunami and instant freeze, has actually happened in New York before and after the movie. From a small Tsunami, floods, Hurricane that was followed by a massive Snow Storm ( a massive jet-stream wave), plus a long and interesting list of other weather events.

Hopefully the link works.

Edited by user Wednesday, 15 January 2025 11:24:00 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling

I had to wait for the forecast soundings to load this morning so I went and mowed the lawn. The feel like temperatures is already way above 30°C and the CBD ihas an apparent temperature of 35°C at 0900.

The soundings came through for the forecast modelling and at this stage it doesn’t look that crash hot for storms.

The 10:00 sounding has a lack of moisture and a solid cap of over 5°C. So that would be hard to break but there is still no moisture. As below.



The 13:00 sounding has the cap eroding but the cape or instability weakens considerably. There is a little bit of moisture as per below.



Then the 16:00 sounding has no cap, , instability has deteriorated and the amount of moisture is starting to dry up a little . As below.



You cannot definitely rule out storms or showers. But for storms to develop it is going to have to take a lot of things to happen at the right time. Not impossible, so just keep an eye and ear out. Maybe a refreshing shower would be nice a little latter with the change coming through. But this morning sounding will give us a better understanding of what is really happening in the atmosphere.

A couple of cells popping up mainly just over the border but also 3 smaller cells west of Esk and south of Yarraman.
Please keep an eye and ear out, These little cells should start telling a bit of the storyline for this afternoon.

12 cm hail has been reported and also photographed from the storm near Grafton earlier.

STW has been issued at this stage for the SE corner of Queensland .