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128mm to 9am, just steady rain. Jerry can full, water containers full, generator run. Now we just sit and wait.😁 Edited by user Tuesday, 28 January 2025 10:13:36 AM(UTC)
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Another 45mm or so here since 9AM.
The golden gumboot is looking good Scott, nice bit of landscaping there.
I've given up looking at the models for the time being, they're all over the place.
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JTWC have a cyclone formation alert for an area 58 nautical miles north of Cairns
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Now the JTWC are saying it’s 24 nautical miles NE of Cairns and conditions are great for quick formation. High chance of cyclone in 24 hours
BOM crickets…..
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No real surprise weary...you could see the rotation happening 24 hrs ago and southern rainbands had wind gusts up to 40 knots at lucinda while off Arlington reef up your way, 35 knots.. If it happens in the next 24 hrs I dont remember seeing one form from nothing so quickly and so close to the coast.... Anyone else seen this happen before...? 
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Scott, the 16:00 significant weather advisory
ABPW10 PGTW 280600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/280600Z-290600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9S 145.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 21 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, JUST
NORTH OF CAIRNS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAIRNS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT IN A MOISTURE-FILLED
ENVIRONMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM
SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 280230)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
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Looks interesting for next Tuesday, according to ECMWF 
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Wow, do they expect it to bomb overnight then? 20 knots with 1006Mb doesn't seem that close to a cyclone even with the rotation. |
Records for
2023: 2710mm
2024: 1884mm (no records April-Sept)
2025 711.6mm |
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The radar is showing a hint of a circulation out around Norman Reef. No wonder it's been pouring here for nearly half an hour.
They say it's all moving south of Innisfail by tomorrow.
Your right Ron, the forecasting is crazy at the moment.
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Originally Posted by: ronfishes  Wow, do they expect it to bomb overnight then? 20 knots with 1006Mb doesn't seem that close to a cyclone even with the rotation. Thats exactly what they are saying Ron...next to nothing now but all variables are highly conducive to cyclone formation and away we go....hopefully its heads off south overnight like sheriden mist suggests... Nothing from BOM yet and its after knockoff time for them now . Which way was that heading 28...? Edited by user Tuesday, 28 January 2025 5:41:23 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: scott123 Which way was that heading 28...? Hard to tell..... This should take you to 1:00am on 3rd Feb. https://www.ventusky.com...sure&t=20250202/1500The one in the Gulf will make landfall. The one in the Coral Sea is just messing around not doing much that my inexperienced eye can tell.
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After a couple of 20-40 forecasts from wz, we're nearing 300mm in 24hrs. Very happy here.
Still pouring, the yard is getting a bit boggy though.
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Originally Posted by: Sheridan Mist After a couple of 20-40 forecasts from wz, we're nearing 300mm in 24hrs. Very happy here.
Still pouring, the yard is getting a bit boggy though. Yeah good steady wet season rain but at last we can be thankful its not the Jasper rain of a year back... That sort of rain was just so horribly destructive and I'll be glad if all we get is the usual wet season stuff that we usually come to expect and another year without any significant cyclones in FNQ..
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Pre emptive emptying of the rain gauge, 85 mm since 9am
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Just emptied out the gauge in case we have one of those Jasper nights. 107mm here since 9. Seems to be settling a bit. Edit: Great minds think alike Weary. Edit 2020: Looks by the radar it's clearing south from here now. Maybe good falls on the Cassowary Coast tonight. Edited by user Tuesday, 28 January 2025 8:24:01 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: scott123 Originally Posted by: ronfishes Wow, do they expect it to bomb overnight then? 20 knots with 1006Mb doesn't seem that close to a cyclone even with the rotation. Thats exactly what they are saying Ron...next to nothing now but all variables are highly conducive to cyclone formation and away we go....hopefully its heads off south overnight like sheriden mist suggests... Nothing from BOM yet and its after knockoff time for them now . Which way was that heading 28...? DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. Seems contradictory. maybe the intern is playing around. |
Records for
2023: 2710mm
2024: 1884mm (no records April-Sept)
2025 711.6mm |
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Originally Posted by: ronfishes Originally Posted by: scott123 Originally Posted by: ronfishes Wow, do they expect it to bomb overnight then? 20 knots with 1006Mb doesn't seem that close to a cyclone even with the rotation. Thats exactly what they are saying Ron...next to nothing now but all variables are highly conducive to cyclone formation and away we go....hopefully its heads off south overnight like sheriden mist suggests... Nothing from BOM yet and its after knockoff time for them now . Which way was that heading 28...? DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. Seems contradictory. maybe the intern is playing around. yeah Ron that blurb sounds a bit like the report cards I used to get at school... "Shows a lot of potential but needs to do better"..  Anyway does anyone follow Tim....i think he is currently building an ark after his last post just 4 hrs ago.... 
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So many of these knobs about now. Anyway the Doppler actually looks quite good, shame there's no Obs from Arlington |
Records for
2023: 2710mm
2024: 1884mm (no records April-Sept)
2025 711.6mm |
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