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SE QLD and NE NSW - Day to day Weather 2024
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Colin Maitland. |
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Very ordinary days weather wise here for the last few days. Today started out like we were going to have an overcast and showery day but it ended up clearing to a mostly sunny day and the skies are lovely and clear tonight. There is a nice cool breeze outside. There are storms showing on the radar out near Boonah and down to the NSW border.  It certainly was an interesting El Nino event (that is now over as posted by Colmait above) this time. It started off hot and dry and then the rainfall started and seemed to go on and on. Wonder what the La Nina will bring this year.
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Here comes the 1st part of rain. The Mt Stapylton radar at 12:19 Saturday afternoon.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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The rain started here mid to late morning today and has been steady light to almost heavy rain since then with only a couple of short breaks in between. For the first time this Autumn I have needed to wear a cardigan this evening when going outside. The Mt Stapylton Radar image from 8.10 pm this evening shows how widespread the rain is.  Tomorrows Brisbane forecast is for a very high chance of rain (up to 30mm) with the chance of a thunderstorm and a max temp of only 23°C.
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Here is a screen shot of the New Toowoomba Radar. Very impressed. Unfortunately it doesn't have a rainfall total but you can overlap that with Stapylton. This was the rain at 1533 Sunday afternoon  |
Colin Maitland. |
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Another cool day today with a forecast max of 25°C. There is quite a strong breeze blowing on and off this morning and the sun is poking through the clouds from time to time. Unfortunately though, there are more showers forecast for today. That is very cool that the Toowoomba radar is up and running. We like going to Toowoomba from time to time on the weekends to do some shopping and sightseeing (a nice change from Brisbane) and it will give us another option to check the weather before going and while there. I imagine it will also be a good way to check on developing storms in more detail (this is from the viewpoint of someone who is definitely not a weather expert unlike most posters on the Weather Forum 
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The night time temperatures have been nice. Another two warmer days ahead of us with tops around 27°C then it should cool down a little. Although most days will see some cloud cover, there are no storms on the horizon and the WATL 8 day outlook has only a very small amount of precipitation around the Coastal fringes or East of the Ranges within the area of this thread.Between 1-5 mm. As per usual though there could some areas they may receive a few more mm if you happen to be under the right cloud.  Edited by user Wednesday, 24 April 2024 6:43:05 AM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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It is lovely to have a sunny blue sky this morning. It also feels a bit cooler this morning compared to the last few mornings.
Today has a forecast max of 27°C.
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A warmer night last night, Thursday/Friday with the feel like temperatures sitting around 21°C most of the night.
Our weather is stuck due to a persistent high Ridge sitting over Southern Central QLD. A southerly should kick in today, Friday, and keep the Maximum temperatures a little below average for the next 6 days, which is nice. This may bring a little more shower activity over the weekend. We are only talking about 1-2 mm approximately if you are under one of the clouds.
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Colin Maitland. |
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Another lovely Autumn morning this morning. Clear blue skies and a nice cool temperature. The minimum this morning was around 16°C and looking at the BOM 7 day forecast the minimums should stay around 16 or 17 dropping to 14°C by next Friday. Today has a forecast maximum of 25°C and as mentioned by Colmait in the above post the maximums for the next week are for 26°C and under which will be very pleasant. There is the possibility of showers though for today and through to Tuesday unfortunately  . Our yard certainly does not need any more showers as the ground is already well watered from the endless weeks of showers we have had.
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The good old Queensland Ridge is still in action over Southwest Queensland. As one Ridge weakens and moves off shore another Ridge slides in due to the High Pressure systems down South.
This should see stable weather inland and possible showers closer to the Coast as the South Easters continue.
We are now heading into May and the average temperature over the years has been a Min. of 15°C and Max. of 24°C. So most of the week we will probably see just slightly above average temperatures for the week, and we are only talking a degree or two this week, so that is good news.
I hope everyone gets to enjoy the cooler weather.. It is a pleasant break after such a fierce and long Summer.
Cheers
Colin.
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Colin Maitland. |
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Well we certainly have had cooler days this week with the temperature only reaching a maximum of around 22/23°C today, and tonight actually feels cold (to me anyway). And the showers and rain are still hanging around.
What I have noticed the last couple of weeks with this weather (when it is not raining) is the amazing variety of cloud formations and lovely sunsets.
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We definitely did have a variety of clouds Aussie Girl. Tuesday afternoon there was some small mammatus under a cumulus cloud, it really looked like there was some rain and thunder coming, but it slowly dispersed without anything. But it was nice to stop and look at it with my wife as we scrambled to get the clothes off the line. There has been nearly everything from high level Cirrus to low level stratus and some with wind blown wave tops on a couple of clouds. It has been gusty at times as well. The next 7 days could see an increase again in showers but over that period we are likely to only see up to 10-15 mm ( if it falls). Along the Coastline there should be more action but with most of the showers or rain falling into the Bay and Oceans, which could see up to 100 mm. On the boarder of NSW and QLD there is a higher chance of heavier falls.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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Today was very nice weather wise with a maximum of nearly 25°C and no showers here. The evenings are definitely cooler now. Around 4.30 to 5 pm you can definitely feel the coolness in the air most days now, and at times during the day there has been a cool breeze. Hopefully I am allowed to post this photo. This was one of the skies with different cloud formations last week that I mentioned in my previous post.  As forecast by BOM for Brisbane today there is the chance of a thunderstorm. I have just checked the radar and indeed there are some storms at the moment down the Gold Coast and inland a bit (south of Boonah). Here is the radar image from this evening at 7.41pm. 
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Hi Aussie Girl. Love the clouds in the photo. An amazing array of formations at the different levels. Showers are in the forecast for the whole week but more on the slim chance or as BoM put it, “in the 25% chance we may receive …..mm ”. Now that I have said that, we will probably get more showers than predicted. Just quickly running through the stormcast modelling and it is pretty dry except for a chance on Sunday for some showers. If showers eventuate they should come from the Ridge created by the convergence of the wind from the Southwest and Northeast.So we may see showers from both inland and from the Coast depending on the position of the ridge. Any moisture will most likely be dragged back into the low sitting off the NSW East Coast. Most of this action should be at this stage, towards the South East corner of Queensland and into NSW. Even though the models are suggesting Sunday, we could see this system push through a day or 2 earlier. Below is BoM’s WATL forecast accumulated totals and GFS modelling from Windy.   Edited by user Tuesday, 7 May 2024 7:15:39 AM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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Colin Maitland. |
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It certainly was a cool and showery day today Colmait. The sun managed to poke through now and again only to eventually disappear back into those rain clouds. Glancing out the window and seeing the sunshine gave me hope of it clearing up but that hope was quickly dashed by going outside and seeing dark clouds gathering once again. It did make for some interesting cloud formations though. This was one of those occasions.  According to the BOM forecast it looks like we are in for showery days for the rest of the week. Hopefully the forecast for mostly sunny days next Monday and Tuesday wont change.
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This week has been a good example to show how you cannot fully lock in a predicted forecast model. The system that was supposed to bring some rain to the Southern area of Queensland has slid further to the South. Although for this area of the thread we definitely had a few days of some good heavy showers and especially around Springbrook. The 2 Ridges, an upper and lower ridge over Queensland have been the main drivers for the weather in Southern, while down NSW, 2 very strong Highs in the Tasman Sea have driven the weather pattern there. So for Queensland, (in this area of the thread and NE NSW), we should still see some showers ramp up a little over the next 2-3 days, just in time for the weekend, then it will quickly clear to the East then followed by warmer weather especially on Monday with a top of 26-27°C expected. Likewise Tuesday and Wednesday should see higher than average maximum temperatures. (25-26°C.) On the flip side, due to cloudless nights for Monday and Tuesday, the minimum temperature should be about average for this time of year until cloud starts to roll back in on Wednesday afternoon. I have posted below the 2 forecast models highlighting the difference seen within 5 days. 1st forecast model from Monday.  The revised model from this morning, Friday 10 May.  The WATL chart for showers over the weekend  Cheers and have a good weekend. Edited by user Friday, 10 May 2024 6:25:33 AM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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The next 6-7 days should see temperatures return to a degree or 2 above the May average in both the Minimums and Maximums with the exception of today, Tuesday. It will reach a few degrees above the May average with a possible max of 26-27°C. The clouds should start to roll back in a blanket the sun on and off throughout the day and tap the heat throughout the night. As for showers, there is not a lot predicted in the models, with a forecast of a possible 1- 10 mm over the next 8 days. This could change very quickly as I have noted that the models of late seem to be not predicting the weather too well. BoM has been off the mark and the models that I have used for the nearly the better part of the last 2 decades, are not going to plan either. The atmosphere has become a little tricky with so much going on around the world including our region down here. Here is the WATL modelling for showers over the next 8 days. This could go either way.  Edited by user Tuesday, 14 May 2024 8:10:36 AM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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Originally Posted by: Colmait 
This could change very quickly as I have noted that the models of late seem to be not predicting the weather too well. BoM has been off the mark and the models that I have used for the nearly the better part of the last 2 decades, are not going to plan either. The atmosphere has become a little tricky with so much going on around the world including our region down here.
That is true Colmait. My husband and I have been saying that we can't remember having such unpredictable weather like we have been experiencing the last few months. The forecasts don't seem to be able to be relied on as much anymore. The last two days of mostly sunshine have been very enjoyable though and we are really feeling the cooler nighttime temperatures now.
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