Thursday this week has a bit of potential for a bit of a storm but the models are spitting out all different data and not in agreement with each other. It will come down to the timing of the front and the atmospheric conditions when the front moves through.

Totally agree with you and your husband Aussie Girl. The weather is acting very weird. Nothing that was forecast to happen with the long range climate outlook has come to fruition at this stage. We are still in a neutral pattern and still maybe looking at another La Niña. It has been very dry on top of everything in this area as well.

Below is GFS view of the system and probability


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And EC’s models output using Windy.



For Thursday it could go either way and may have to be another realtime observations to see how it all unfolds So for anyone reading, it will be a case of watch and listen for any warnings if storms fire off and if they do become severe. A lot of “ifs” but you can’t rule anything out.

The radar is showing a good storm cell to the North of Dolby. It is quite lightning active as can be seen by the Energex Lightning tracker. I have also included the Gympie doppler and as the cell is entering the parameters of the doppler there is a fair bit of wind starting to build.
There is still a slight chance for Brisbane either late after or early evening. This mornings sounding had a bit of potential on the readings but it is a wait and see how it pans out over the next couple of hours. But those areas that were in the forecast are looking quite promising for a reasonable good storm.

The radar fMt Stapylton . The Gympie radar doppler, the Energex Lightning tracker and this morning sounding.











And the latest storm warning. At this stage there is a blanket warning out but I would expect to see a seperate warning for that cell approaching the Coast well to the North.

Edited by user Thursday, 24 October 2024 2:55:49 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Forgot the this Brisbane SkewT/ Sounding

The latest STW for this storm system.
I would do a seperate thread for storms but at this stage we don’t have enough members yet. So it is easier just to keep it in the Day to day unless it is really severe. Please feel free to join the forum and post. We just try and keep everything simple and just talk about weather for fun and fascination.