Thank you for that info Colmait. I did some searching yesterday and found this site called Oscilmet where you can access the last two weeks of Australian Weather Radar. It is a free registration so I signed up and was able to look at the radar from Thursday afternoon for the Rothwell area.

This is a link to the site: http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.p


These are screenshots of the 128km Mt Stapylton radar images from 31.10.24 4.59pm and 5.04pm that I got from the Oscilmet site.






I don't know if we are not reading the radar properly but the images didn't make us think there would be hail just some rain. As I mentioned previously the hail was only small.



By coincidence I read an interesting article yesterday by Meteorologist Anthony Cornelius that had a section called "Why Did it Hail When The Radar Showed No Precipitation?"

This is what he said in the article:

"The storm briefly weakened as the cooler outflow from the Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD) pushed ahead of it, temporarily cutting off the warm inflow. However, the storm’s inflow quickly fought back (thanks to the deep, gusty, easterly winds in the lower atmosphere), “bringing the storm back to life” and intensifying it across central to eastern Brisbane, where it delivered extensive large to golf-ball-sized hail.

For many, the hail came as a surprise, falling even before rain appeared on radar. This phenomenon, known as “clear-air hail,” can occur in strong storms when hail wraps around or falls ahead of the updraft due to intense winds. Because this hail occurs in the storm’s overhang, it can sometimes be missed by radar, especially if hailstones are sporadic."

He added: "In some cases, the updraft ahead of the storm can stop rain from falling to the ground as the rain is too light to fall through the updraft. This is known as a "Weak Echo Region." However, as hail is heavier than rain, the hail can fall down through the updraft and reach the ground. So even when there is no precipitation showing on the ground, sporadic hailstorms can occur giving the impression that it's "hailing out of thin air." Source: MetCentre"

Link to article: https://www.weatherwatch...bringing-widespread-hail

Edited by user Saturday, 2 November 2024 11:25:25 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling

Hi Aussie Girl, sorry for the late reply. I have had a bit of trouble with the NBN today.

That was a nice summary of the storm on Thursday afternoon that you put together.

The clouds are called Cumulonimbus. They tower upwards with the updrafts and can reach heights of above 50,000 feet. When the updrafts are strong and the atmosphere is cold enough, hail will form. The hail will fall and rise within the cloud and grow in size. With turbulent severe supercells, the hail can be tumbled so violently up and down and sideways and collect more ice with each tumble etc, that it will come out with different shapes and sizes and sometimes with spikes protruding from them. Usually these severe cells will produce larger hail from 2cm to what we call gorilla hail which is tennis ball size and bigger. Some of the biggest recorded have been over 1kg and can fall at speeds of 160km/h.




On the other hand with slow moving and smoother/ weaker updrafts hail will quickly fall. So they can produce pea size hail and if moving slowly, they can form hail drifts were hail can be a few centre meters thick and deeper..





Fortunately for the area you were in the updrafts were a little on the weaker side but the horizontal winds were quite strong hence the hail falling ahead of the storm. We were in a similar situation near Petrie. There was no signs of rain on the radar, but above the house we had mammatus clouds and light rain falling along with thunder. The radar may not be picking up the moisture correctly as this has happened a couple of times lately.



I took a screenshot of the Sounding but I unfortunately cut the wind barbs off when I cropped the photo. But as you can see by the red lines on the left of the sounding, the air was minus 50°C. Unfortunately I can’t show the wind speeds at the different heights. But the mid levels were quite strong on Thursday.

Edited by user Saturday, 2 November 2024 8:15:56 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Added a hail drift photo

A pretty strong heatwave is building for large parts of Queensland, it is expected to be in full swing by Tuesday onwards. Please keep up to date with warnings. There is also possibilities for some storms along the Border and Southern Interior on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Today has taken an interesting twist with the latest Brisbane sounding, There is potential for Thunderstorms this afternoon with the chance of some being severe. So please keep an ear and eye out for any warnings if they do eventuate. There is no cap and lots of instability. Below is the latest Sounding from the Brisbane Airport and it is a lot different to what the models were showing.



This is what the GFS forecast sounding looked like for a few days. You will notice a lack of moisture and quite a massive cap.

.

And what EC thinks may eventuate, but this could reach the coastal areas. Just have to see how it pans out. It is very interesting how quickly set ups can change.

Edited by user Tuesday, 5 November 2024 11:44:45 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling

The storm between Boonah and Beaudesert has now been classified as Very Dangerous. This is the latest STW:




The 128km Mt Stapylton Radar Image from 4.55pm:

Went and picked my wife up and after arriving back home I watched this cell rapidly form close to our house. Unfortunately the power lines spoil it. We have some great vantage points close to here but the storms timing was not good. Plus peak hour traffic would have made it difficult.

Storms are just struggling a little to fire off. There is some development near the Southern Interior and border region. As the afternoon continues sometimes the Seabreeze can fuel storms so it is a wait and see how it all transpires.

You can see by the radar image storms are coming from the NorthWest in Queensland and as they head to the Coast they are getting caught in the low between 850 mb and 700mb. ( between 1500 meters or 5000 feet and 3100 meters or 10,000 feet. There is also an upper low.









GFS had a massive cap in their Sounding . Here is the models sounding below.

Edited by user Thursday, 7 November 2024 3:40:21 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

There were a few small little storms yesterday pop up in a couple of places, the reports were they passed very quickly, little to no rain and just a few rumbles. But nothing severe or anywhere near what was forecast to happen. The trough out West was too late for it to have an effect over much of the area, the cloud prevented a fair bit of the hearing that was predicted and there was a strong Cap for much of the day. With cloud cover it doesn’t always destroy chances for storms just can limit them a bit. 2 of big storms I have been through where on cloudy days.

In looking back GFS actually was correct with this one where as the last round of storms it was a bit of the mark and EC got it pretty right. But to give GFS credit it did get the previous Friday storm right. So it seems a bit of hit and miss with the modelling.

The earlyy morning sounding from the airport showed nearly no cap at all but as the day progressed the cap grew quickly. 1st image is the sounding from the airport and the second is GFS showing the cap.

I was out of action yesterday due to a bad migraine.



In Comparison the GFS sounding

What we found interesting watching the radar yesterday was how storms would appear on the radar and then within a short time just vanish into nothing. For example here are two screenshots of the Mt Stapylton 128km radar from last night (taken from the Oscilmet website):

This is the radar at 8.04 pm



And this is the radar at 8.34 pm



I don't know anywhere near enough about the weather to know what causes this, only that it was interesting to watch.


It is already very sticky outside this morning. It will be interesting to see what today brings rain and storm wise.


Sorry to hear about your bad migraine Colmait. Migraines are nasty things to have.

Storms have fired up just to the West and starting to come over the Range. We could hear a rumble or 2 later this afternoon towards the Coastal areas..

Some good 1 hour rain rates as the storms are moving a bit slower.






Latest Warning.



Storms could be on the cards most days this week with Wednesday at this stage being the stand out day.