Starting to get some heavier rain now. This is the BOM 128km Mt Stapylton radar image as at 12.50pm this afternoon.





An updated flood watch has been issued by BOM at 12.20pm this afternoon for Coastal Catchments from Sarina to Tweed Heads:

Flood Watch for Coastal Catchments from Sarina to Tweed Heads

Issued at 12:20 pm EST on Monday 12 August 2024

Flood Watch Number: 4

ISOLATED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY

A rain band extends over eastern and central Queensland. An upper trough extends over Queensland enhancing showers and thunderstorms. The upper trough will move south down the east coast from today, moving offshore late on Wednesday. A surface trough is forecast to develop near the central Queensland coast from today, most likely between Carmila and Hervey Bay, and will enhance rainfall, winds, and seas in its vicinity. The coastal trough will weaken from Thursday.

Catchments within the Flood Watch Area are moderately dry but beginning to wet up after rainfall in coastal areas over the last few days.

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Flood Watch Area from the remainder of Monday until Wednesday, easing on Thursday.

Significant uncertainty still remains in the timing and location of the rainfall, although the coast and adjacent ranges are most likely to see the heaviest falls.

Localised river level rises and flash flooding are likely within the areas of heaviest rainfall, with isolated minor to moderate riverine flooding possible.

Due to the localised nature of the heavier falls, at this stage it is not possible to be more specific about the areas of highest flood risk.

Flooding may result in disruption to transport routes and isolation of some communities.

Catchments likely to be affected include:
Connors, Isaac and Styx Rivers and Plane Creek

Mackenzie and Fitzroy Rivers and Shoalwater and Water Park Creeks
(Riverine flooding not expected in Fitzroy or Mackenzie Rivers at this stage)

Calliope River

Boyne River

Baffle Creek

Kolan River

Burnett River

Burrum and Cherwell Rivers

Mary River

Noosa River

Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks

Pine and Caboolture Rivers

Upper Brisbane River

Lower Brisbane River
(including the Bremer River and Lockyer, Laidley and Warrill Creeks, excluding the lower Brisbane River itself)

Logan and Albert Rivers

Gold Coast Rivers and Creeks


See www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings to view the current flood, weather and cyclone products for Queensland.

93 mm here for the event with a few showers still sweeping through.
There has been some big falls of over 150mm within the area of this thread.
Below is the 24 hour rainfall totals from Mt Stapylton radar for when most of the rain fell. Also a map of the rainfall totals over the SEQLD area.

After the rain clears we are in for some leap frog weather with warm to hot days then back to cooler days. Water temperatures have dropped considerably but we are still in a neutral weather pattern. It is still looking like that we will enter into an El Nino phase.

It feels like we are skipping Spring and going straight to Summer with the temps this week. And now we have some thunderstorms brewing.

This is the 128km Mt Stapylton radar image from 3.25pm.

What a difference a week makes. Here we were last week having hot summer like temperatures in the 30s and this week the temperature has been back down to the low to mid 20's. The evenings have been cool enough to require wearing a jacket. Crazy weather.






The coming summer has me on edge too Colmait. The ABC News had an article on Wednesday titled "Warnings over Increased Bushfire Risk as Australia Records Warmest August on Record" (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-04/spring-bushfire-outlook-suggests-increased-risk-in-qld-nt-vic-sa/104304072). It feels like we are in uncharted territory with the climate at the moment.

Interesting about the Cellar staff telling you about the lack of snow. I was just reading an article this morning that stated that Australia's snow seasons are projected to get shorter as Winters become warmer.

That certainly was an interesting way to end your holidays Colmait. The news reported that the earthquake was felt as far away as Western Sydney so I can imagine you would have really felt it quite strongly where you were staying. Thank you for posting the GEO science report of the quake.

That is a bit scary that there has not been enough back burning throughout NSW. The only silver lining is that the fire season for NSW is predicted to be relatively normal this summer. A different story for us in Qld though, including the south east. This is an excerpt from a news article today:


"QFD commissioner Steve Smith said ..... a wet summer this year had given rise to ideal conditions for growth in parts of the state, raising new fire risks.

“We’ve got significant vegetation growth that has cured with a drier-than-average winter,” Mr Smith said.

With some of those frosts curing our fuels, this is elevated fire risk, particularly across northern, central and southern Queensland.”

Of particular concern were southern and central grasslands and forests, particularly around the Scenic Rim area.

Areas to the west in Darling Downs as well as Charleville, up to Warrego and the Maranoa, were also of concern.

“There’s also heightened conditions risk for the Sunshine Coast hinterland,” Mr Smith said.


(https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/increased-risk-firies-bleak-warning-for-spring-bushfire-season/news-story/3fc14db3ecd930d4ecd1c5fb19f47c49)

A fair bit of lightning in the showers passing over SE QLD this afternoon. Below is the Mt Stapylton radar sweep of the showers , the Energex lightning tracker and the Himawari satellite lightning tracker.
Pretty cool to come out of the cinema after finally seeing Twisters and seeing darkened skies.

Edited by user Tuesday, 10 September 2024 2:26:21 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

The last two weeks have been absolutely lovely weather wise. Great outdoor weather for the school holidays. The kids have had lots of fun at the pool and beach.

A different story for Friday and Saturday though as Colmait mentioned above. This is the Bom forecast for Brisbane for those days:

I haven’t posted in a little while as our weather is still stuck in this cycle of hot days followed by a few cooler days and once again we have a repeat of this for the week ahead.

BoM are going for a chance of storms for tomorrow but I am personally waiting to see how tomorrow pans out. There is a cold front approaching that will drop temperatures on Wednesday by 10°C but some of the modelling system are not 100 % convinced that wide spread storms will build. But please stay vigilant just in case because you can’t rule it anything out. We could see the old basic hot V cold style storm that turns quite nasty if the fronts move through earlier and the timing is just right.

Below is the storm cast for tomorrow and the skewT/sounding. We really need to see the actual sounding as it is released tomorrow.





As you can see on the Sounding there is a little instability and storms would be high based and starting to choke at about 31000 feet.

In comparison, Wednesday seems to be a more active day albeit possibly thundery rain. I have included the stormcast and forecast sounding for Wednesday below. But it will be pleasant to have another cool change with a bit of showers/rain within this thread’s parameters.





In summary there is a chance of a storm for Tuesday but it is a really wait and see how everything pans out. Some storms are very clear cut, but this one is a little more touch and go, so the best thing to do is keep an eye out and listen for any warnings if storms develop. It could go either way so it is best to be prepared. But we definitely have a cool change for Wednesday with the possibility of thundery showers/ rain.

We are still on La Niña watch and hence still in a neutral weather pattern right now.It is leaning more towards La Niña and is close to being called but once again a wait and see.

Edited by user Monday, 7 October 2024 10:40:29 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Wanting the reader to understand that this is my personal view only and be vigilant.

Looking at the 128K Mt Stapylton radar and the 1st possible storm cell is starting to rapidly develop. (12:35) Worth keeping an eye on the radar.



The Brisbane Airport Sounding shows a lot of instability and no capping so storms should fire off quickly given the right conditions.



Just have to see how everything plays out over the next 30-60 minutes.

The storms do seem to be developing quite rapidly now. This is the 128k Mt Stapylton at 1.20pm. A couple of the storms have black cores.