That was very fortunate that your daughter only got the edge of that storm Colmait.

It is nice to have slightly cooler temperatures today. The forecast maximum temperature for the Brisbane area today is 31°C.

Here is the Brisbane forecast for the next few days showing maximum temperatures in the low 30's.






Happy Australia Day

We are still stuck in this hot and humid weather pattern.
Some nice beefy showers are rolling through. A surface trough is bringing in showers off the Bay and an upper trough is bringing heavier showers from the North West.

It is certainly hot and sticky today. The feel like temperatures are around 3 to 4°C above actual temperatures this morning. BOM have forecast a maximum temperature of 31°C and the possibility of a thunderstorm this afternoon. To me (in my very amateur opinion) it feels like a storm day.

This is the Brisbane forecast for the next few days:

Storms are firing off out West and Southwest. Warnings have been issued for large hailstones, damaging winds and heavy rain.

Glad I wasn't the only one who felt like it was a storm day yesterday. I was actually amazed we didn't get one after that morning heat and humidity. That would have been awful for you Colmait if your project was outdoors with no aircon.

It is interesting to look at the rainfall areas from that overnight rain last night. The heavier falls only seemed to go east to a certain point. This is the 128km Mt Stapylton 24hr Rainfall image:





This is a link to the BOM radar loop from 9.30pm last night until 4am this morning. It was fascinating to watch the rain cells almost dancing with each other and eventually joining up. The link is to the Oscilmet Weather site:

https://www.oscilmet.com...mp;dateFinish=1739296800

Hopefully the link works.

Edited by user Wednesday, 12 February 2025 8:22:37 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Missing Word

We are now into Autumn and the long range forecast is for a warmer than average temperatures for the next couple of months.

But right now the big question is Cyclone Alfred. I have held back from posting anything until we got a little closer. As per cyclones, models throw all sorts of scenarios and you end up with a spaghetti ensemble that shows the cyclone doing all sorts of things and crossing the coast and in so many areas.

In the last day, Alfred is starting to take a make itself felt along the Southeast Coast and the Bureau is now starting to get a little bit more of better picture of TC Alfred with a possibility of it crossing the Coast.

Even though it is a few days off, things can still change. But with the latest forecast track, it is worth keeping a serious eye on this system. There is now a fair chance that TC Alfred could now cross the Coast from the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane or the Gold Coast

Here is the latest update and track maps.







Even though things can change quickly it would be very wise to be prepared for a possible crossing or for some severe weather.
I have tried to keep this post a simple as possible without going into all the technicalities. The important thing is watching a being prepared in case instead of reading a massive technical post.

This is from EWN. I also received a text message from the Moreton Bay Regional Council regarding the same.

Here is the full EWN

Hi Aussie Girl
Thanks for the update and photo. It would have been interesting to see the swell. When I was in my late teens and early 20’s, I and a few mates used to chase the swell and surf the monsters. Sometimes there would only be a a dozen out in the break. We didn’t have any jet ski’s or safety gear back in the 80’s. A few times you would line one up and as you saw over the lip this massive drop you would just pull out at the last minute.
Then the sets would get even bigger and we would paddle even further out. Then you would have your heart and stomach in your mouth and just go for it. But that swell just looks a bit to messy to surf.

Tonight on the weather the term Hybrid system was used for TC Alfred but this can diminish the seriousness of the threat. It was said it could be similar to an ECL.

But to keep things simple it is still TC Alfred and will still cause possible damage no matter what it is labelled. There are technicalities brought in by BoM in 1978. Sometimes when you analyse it, there is really no difference at times and I believe this is one of those times.

There is still time for the system to change. It is a little bit disorganised currently, but is expected to re intensify to at least a Cat 2 system.

Tomorrow will give us a better view of what is happening. Hopefully it may move to the East. But for everyone reading please stay alert and listen to the updates and warnings.

Edited by user Sunday, 2 March 2025 9:39:54 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Grammar etc

From the Brisbane City Council Website re the City Cat and Ferry Service:

The latest update with TC. Alfred